Gamma-ray Bursts, Classified Physically

From Galactic binary sources, to extragalactic magnetized neutron stars, to long-duration GRBs without associated supernovae, the types of sources we now believe capable of producing bursts of gamma-rays continues to grow apace. With this emergent diversity comes the recognition that the traditional (and newly formulated) high-energy observables used for identifying sub-classes does not provide an adequate one-to-one mapping to progenitors. The popular classification of some > 100 sec duration GRBs as ``short bursts'' is not only an unpalatable retronym and syntactically oxymoronic but highlights the difficultly of using what was once a purely phenomenological classification to encode our understanding of the physics that gives rise to the events. Here we propose a physically based classification scheme designed to coexist with the phenomenological system already in place and argue for its utility and necessity.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. Slightly expanded version of solicited paper to be published in the Proceedings of ''Gamma Ray Bursts 2007,'' Santa Fe, New Mexico, November 5-9. Edited by E. E. Fenimore, M. Galassi, D. Palme

Predicting Short-duration GRB Rates in the Advanced LIGO Volume

Starting with models for the compact object merger event rate, the short-duration Gamma-ray Burst (sGRB) luminosity function, and the Swift/BAT detector, we calculate the observed Swift sGRB rate and its uncertainty. Our probabilistic sGRB world model reproduces the observed number distributions in redshift and flux for 123 Swift/BAT detected sGRBs and can be used to predict joint sGRB/LIGO detection rates. We discuss the dependence of the rate predictions on the model parameters and explore how they vary with increasing experimental sensitivity. In particular, the number of bursts in the LIGO volume depends strongly on the parameters that govern sGRB beaming. Our results suggest that nearby sGRBs should be observed to have broader jets on average ($\theta_{\rm jet}\gtrsim 30$ degrees), as compared to the narrowly-beamed appearance of cosmological sGRBs due to detection selection effect driving observed jet angle. Assuming all sGRBs are due to compact object mergers, within a $D < 200$ Mpc aLIGO volume, we predict $0.18^{+0.19}_{-0.08}$ sGRB/GW associations all-sky per year for on-axis events at Swift sensitivities, increasing to $1.2^{+1.9}_{-0.6}$ with the inclusion of off-axis events. We explore the consistency of our model with GW170817/GRB~170817A in the context of structured jets. Predictions for future experiments are made.Comment: ApJ accepte

Mid-infrared Period-Luminosity Relations of RR Lyrae Stars Derived from the WISE Preliminary Data Release

Interstellar dust presents a significant challenge to extending parallax-determined distances of optically observed pulsational variables to larger volumes. Distance ladder work at mid-infrared wavebands, where dust effects are negligible and metallicity correlations are minimized, have been largely focused on few-epoch Cepheid studies. Here we present the first determination of mid-infrared period-luminosity (PL) relations of RR Lyrae stars from phase-resolved imaging using the preliminary data release of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). We present a novel statistical framework to predict posterior distances of 76 well-observed RR Lyrae that uses the optically constructed prior distance moduli while simultaneously imposing a power-law PL relation to WISE-determined mean magnitudes. We find that the absolute magnitude in the bluest WISE filter is M_W1 = (-0.421+-0.014) - (1.681+-0.147)*log(P/0.50118 day), with no evidence for a correlation with metallicity. Combining the results from the three bluest WISE filters, we find that a typical star in our sample has a distance measurement uncertainty of 0.97% (statistical) plus 1.17% (systematic). We do not fundamentalize the periods of RRc stars to improve their fit to the relations. Taking the Hipparcos-derived mean V-band magnitudes, we use the distance posteriors to determine a new optical metallicity-luminosity relation which we present in Section 5. The results of this analysis will soon be tested by HST parallax measurements and, eventually, with the Gaia astrometric mission.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ, June 27th, 201

Optimal Time-Series Selection of Quasars

We present a novel method for the optimal selection of quasars using time-series observations in a single photometric bandpass. Utilizing the damped random walk model of Kelly et al. (2009), we parameterize the ensemble quasar structure function in Sloan Stripe 82 as a function of observed brightness. The ensemble model fit can then be evaluated rigorously for and calibrated with individual light curves with no parameter fitting. This yields a classification in two statistics --- one describing the fit confidence and one describing the probability of a false alarm --- which can be tuned, a priori, to achieve high quasar detection fractions (99% completeness with default cuts), given an acceptable rate of false alarms. We establish the typical rate of false alarms due to known variable stars as <3% (high purity). Applying the classification, we increase the sample of potential quasars relative to those known in Stripe 82 by as much as 29%, and by nearly a factor of two in the redshift range 2.5<z<3, where selection by color is extremeley inefficient. This represents 1875 new quasars in a 290 deg^2 field. The observed rates of both quasars and stars agree well with the model predictions, with >99% of quasars exhibiting the expected variability profile. We discus the utility of the method at high-redshift and in the regime of noisy and sparse data. Our time series selection complements well independent selection based on quasar colors and has strong potential for identifying high redshift quasars for BAO and other cosmology studies in the LSST era.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables; Accepted to A

A Bayesian Approach to Calibrating Period-Luminosity Relations of RR Lyrae Stars in the Mid-Infrared

A Bayesian approach to calibrating period-luminosity (PL) relations has substantial benefits over generic least-squares fits. In particular, the Bayesian approach takes into account the full prior distribution of the model parameters, such as the a priori distances, and refits these parameters as part of the process of settling on the most highly-constrained final fit. Additionally, the Bayesian approach can naturally ingest data from multiple wavebands and simultaneously fit the parameters of PL relations for each waveband in a procedure that constrains the parameter posterior distributions so as to minimize the scatter of the final fits appropriately in all wavebands. Here we describe the generalized approach to Bayesian model fitting and then specialize to a detailed description of applying Bayesian linear model fitting to the mid-infrared PL relations of RR Lyrae variable stars. For this example application we quantify the improvement afforded by using a Bayesian model fit. We also compare distances previously predicted in our example application to recently published parallax distances measured with the Hubble Space Telescope and find their agreement to be a vindication of our methodology. Our intent with this article is to spread awareness of the benefits and applicability of this Bayesian approach and encourage future PL relation investigations to consider employing this powerful analysis method.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science. Following a presentation at the conference The Fundamental Cosmic Distance Scale: State of the Art and the Gaia Perspective, Naples, May 201